Over the course of the weekend the Prime Minister repaired to Chequers, we are told, to consider his position. At 9.00 am this morning, at least according to BBC Radio 4, he was still considering it. But it would appear to be a rapidly evolving situation so while I write this, I will listen into the news bulletins.
If he goes, we will have gone through seven PMs in a decade, the entire length of Sir Tony Blair’s three terms in office. After Blair, Gordon Brown took over. He seemed to be dogged by bad luck; foot and mouth, the global financial collapse and so on. Early in his term he thought of calling a snap general election to secure a mandate. But, it is said, he dithered, changed his mind, and when he eventually went to the country in 2010, he failed to gain a majority. Big Broon was respected, but he was never popular in Middle England. The 2010 election threatened a hung parliament. Brown tried to form a government but the numbers just didn’t stack up. Hence the Tories and the Lib Dems formed a coalition, and David Cameron became Prime Minister. Gordon Brown had been PM for just under three years. Cameron lasted six years. Brown subsequently said that he thought the days of the PM securing a prolonged term in office were over. How prescient was that? By current standards, his own term seems quite protracted. Some of the subsequent PMs toppled like ninepins. May: 13/7/16 – 24/7/19; Johnson: 24/7/19 – 5/9/22; Truss: 5/9/22 – 24/10/22! (Somebody in the EU said rather unkindly that Liz Truss’s term was shorter than the shelf life of a lettuce.) Sunak: 25/10/22 – 5/7/24; and now Starmer: 5/7/24 – 22/6/26. It’s all beginning to look quite Italianate.
But why is Starmer required to go? He succeeded Jeremy Corbyn as Leader of the Labour Party in 2020, when the Labour Party was widely regarded as unelectable. He turned that around within a remarkably short period of time and in 2024 he won the general election with a huge majority which should have held him secure at least until 2029. But a series of misjudgements and policy U-turns, poor PR and a failure to articulate “mission” have made him unpopular in the country. The polls have turned against him. This is what is making the Parliamentary Labour Party so disgruntled, and so nervous. Frankly, they are all terrified of losing their jobs. And this, at heart, is what has sent Sir Keir to Chequers to contemplate his situation. He will be looking for support, and counting up the numbers. But the numbers are not stacking up.
The event that has brought this situation to a crisis is the convincing victory at the Makerfield by-election of Andy Burnham. As Mayor of Manchester, Mr Burnham has been very popular. He is charismatic, down to earth, and very good at fighting for his corner. He is a “leveller-up”. And he is due to be sworn in as an MP in Westminster this afternoon.
10.00 am, BBC Radio 4. That’s it. Sir Keir has gone. Or at least, is going. If Mr Burnham becomes PM by coronation, it will all happen in July. Sir Keir will take that short car journey to the Palace to resign, and Mr Burnham will follow, and be asked by the king to form a government. If somebody else, Wes Streeting for example, decides to run, there will be a contest, and an election by September, before the party conference. Some people favour a contest; it would give Mr Burnham, and any rivals, a chance to articulate policy in greater detail. But I suspect a lot of labour MPs will hope for a coronation. Enough “churn”.
Within the PLP, high hopes rest on Mr Burnham. He is a magic bullet; a deus ex machina. But is the replacement of one PM by another – No. 7 within a decade – really the answer to the woes, not just of the government, but of the United Kingdom as a whole? It is said that the definition of insanity is the hope that by repeating the same action over and over again one will achieve a different outcome.
Sometimes I think it would be better if we ran the country the way we run a golf club, by electing individuals, for one term only, who might be persuaded to sit on a committee, not for any personal ambition or craving for self-aggrandisement, but, perhaps somewhat reluctantly, out of a sense of civic duty. They might be shopkeepers, garbage collectors, plumbers, teachers, doctors, even lawyers or, God help us, hedge fund managers, all men and women of independent mind, striving under no whip. They might form a government in a collegiate fashion. (Call me naïve.) The government wouldn’t “run” the country. Rather they would introduce new legislation and repeal old; and from taxation assign a budget to public services, largely allowing the people running the services to make policy. For in truth it is you and I, the shopkeepers, garbage collectors, plumbers, teachers, doctors and so on, who run the country. The prosperity of the country, in every sense, arises from a Grand Integral of personal endeavour. MPs, government ministers, and Prime Ministers are here to serve us, but for a season, and then leave the stage.
