In this topsy-turvy world in which we now live, in which the old-fashioned “rules-based” order we have taken for granted for the last 80 years has suddenly been called in question, I have a notion that the Commonwealth is about to fall back into favour. For a time there it looked to be a busted flush. Melbourne didn’t want to host the Commonwealth Games in 2026. The Australians had far more important priorities, and far better things to spend the Australian dollar on. The Games were dismissed out of hand. Then with respect to 2030, Alberta didn’t want them either. Good old Glasgow has taken the 2026 Games on, on a reduced scale, as if to help out. Maybe the notion abroad, and indeed at home, was that the Commonwealth had had its day, and with the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, and with more Commonwealth members tending towards Republicanism, it was high time to let it go. What was it anyway, other than the rag-butt end of a decayed empire?
And then Trump proposed that Canada become the 51st US state. At first people thought that he was just joking. Just Donald being Donald. He referred to Justin Trudeau, erstwhile Canadian Prime Minister, as “Governor Trudeau”. Perhaps he thought he was the Governor-General, an incumbent of the post once occupied by John Buchan, Lord Tweedsmuir, when FDR was in the White House. He expressed a sense of indifference to the business and commercial opportunities the acquisition of Canada might afford the US. “We don’t really need it.” But wouldn’t the map look beautiful if that big straight line from Washington to Maine (or at least as far as the Great Lakes) were removed? He was a bit vague about the historical origins of the US-Canada border. Apparently it was drawn, quite arbitrarily, “many, many decades ago”.
Meanwhile he slapped 25% tariffs on Canadian imports. This angered Canadians, who are replying in kind. They have assumed an assertive posture, “elbows up”, to utilise a metaphor from the ice hockey rink. All of this coincided with the resignation of Trudeau as PM, to be succeeded by Mark Carney, best known on this side of the Pond as Governor of the Bank of England between 2013 and 2020. Trudeau and Carney’s Liberal Party have been trailing in the polls. A general election must be called by October, and it was until now widely anticipated that the Conservatives would get in.
But all that has changed. Canada has been galvanised and energised by a threat on its border, and many people, of whatever political persuasion, are thinking that Mark Carney might just be the man for the job. Cometh the hour, cometh the man. You can see why. He is in almost every way the absolute antithesis to Trump. He is clever (as opposed to wily), experienced, thoughtful, and, so far as one can tell, wise. He has thought deeply about the unacceptable face of capitalism, the way the unfettered market has eroded society, and he has explored these issues in depth in his book Value(s), Building a Better World for All (William Collins, 2021). The President of the United States, by contrast, knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Carney is a master of detail. He is already comfortable on the world’s stage. On a personal level, he is courteous, and charming, even when he can be robust. And he looks the part. So maybe he’ll call a snap election. Of course it’s always a risk. But then not calling one is equally risky. Remember Gordon Brown. He didn’t, was accused of dithering, and when the election eventually came round, he lost it.
I thought of the Commonwealth when I heard Mark Carney swear an oath of allegiance to King Charles III. Had he sworn that same oath before the US presidential inauguration on January 20th it might have sounded rather archaic and formulaic, but in the event it sounded quite significant, a reassertion of historic ties of mutual affection, and like-mindedness. Similarly, Australia has offered to join a “coalition of the willing”.
Wab Kinew, Premier of Manitoba, does a wonderful take-off of Trump. He signed an “executive order”. “This is a wonderful order, a beautiful order, banning American booze.” The Canadian historian Professor Margaret MacMillan, O.M., is more sober. She recognises in Trump a dangerous, existential threat to Canada. Trump has “left the rails”.
It seems to me that there are two widespread misconceptions about the President of the United States. The first is that everything he does is premeditated. He assumes an outlandish posture, or passes an outlandish remark, in order to bring about a specific outcome. So he withdraws military and economic aid from Ukraine, and intelligence, and satellite imagery, so that Europe will step up and fulfil its obligations. See. He’s a really astute guy. Personally I think he’s making it all up as he goes along. He can bring about peace in a day. It’s all done on the back of a fag packet, or more likely a golfer’s score card.
The second misconception is that his bark is worse than his bite; that he’s really a sweetie, soft and cuddly. But that notorious reception of President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office has put paid to that.
Prime Minister Carney is due in the UK today. Later he will visit Paris. Normally the first foreign visit of a Canadian premier would be to the White House, but times are not normal. Here, the Leader of the Free World is due to meet with the Canadian Head of State. So while Mark Carney will talk to the king, and to Sir Keir Starmer, and to M. Macron, Trump will talk to Putin. Sooner or later, these two parallel universes will collide. It won’t be pretty.
jamescalumcampbell 